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Dike Onwuamaeze

President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), Professor Pius Deji Olanrewaju, has disclosed that Nigeria’s current economic crisis requires a coordinated and comprehensive reform strategy anchored on fiscal and monetary discipline, structural transformation, and institution building to reposition the country on a path of sustainable and inclusive economic recovery.

Olanrewaju stated this in Lagos in a lecture he delivered with the theme “The Economic Crisis in Nigeria: The Way Forward” in honour of Emeritus Professor of Economics, Professor Akpan Hogan Ekpo’s contributions to Nigeria’s economic development through teaching, researching, writings and guiding the country’s monetary policy as a former non-executive director of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

He said, “Today’s discourse carries particular urgency. Nigeria stands at a critical juncture where the decisions we make and the reforms we implement will determine whether we emerge from our current challenges stronger and more resilient, or remain trapped in cycles of economic instability that have plagued us for decades.”

According to Olanrewaju, Nigeria’s current economic crisis is marked by stagflation, rising debt, currency volatility, and widespread poverty that calls for more than incremental fixes, adding that “the situation requires a coordinated and comprehensive reform strategy anchored in fiscal and monetary discipline, structural transformation, and institution building that will reposition Nigeria on a path of sustainable and inclusive economic recovery.”

According to him, no reform could succeed without fixing Nigeria’s weak institutions by strengthening the civil service, empowering anti-corruption agencies, embracing digital transparency, and ensuring judicial independence as essential steps.

“As seen in countries like Rwanda and Indonesia, real progress demands political will and leadership committed to the national interest.
“With courage, consistency, and a focus on citizens, Nigeria can move from crisis to opportunity and achieve shared prosperity,” Olanrewaju said.

He added that “although Nigeria has developed numerous economic plans and reform agendas, implementation has been undermined by policy inconsistency, unclear regulations, and weak coordination between fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms.

“Sudden policy shifts, overlapping agency mandates, and bureaucratic red tape have created an unpredictable business environment that deters both local and foreign investors.

“Moreover, the absence of data-driven decision-making and weak monitoring frameworks has led to poor outcomes and a limited ability to respond effectively to economic challenges.

“These issues breed uncertainty, deter innovation, and complicate efforts to attract sustainable investment.

“Furthermore, a lack of data-driven policymaking and weak monitoring and evaluation frameworks has led to suboptimal outcomes and poor adaptability in times of crisis.”

He said that a closer look at Nigeria’s key macroeconomic indicators, sectoral performance, and monetary policy challenges would reveal a complex and precarious situation in the form of lagging economic growth, inflationary trend, public debt, and fiscal pressure.

“No doubt, Nigeria faces several challenges in ensuring economic growth. However, achieving this growth is not impossible. As Nelson Mandela mentioned, ‘It always seems impossible until it’s done.’ Indeed, even grave economic challenges can be overcome with vision and perseverance.”

The president of CIBN said that crafting an effective and sustainable pathway out of Nigeria’s recurring economic crises would require moving beyond the symptoms in order to interrogate the deeper, structural factors that have impeded economic development.

According to him, these root causes are interwoven and have evolved, compounding the country’s vulnerability to internal shocks and external disruptions.
He said: “Governance forms the foundation of national development, yet Nigeria’s progress continues to be undermined by weak institutions, widespread corruption, and inadequate accountability.

“Over time, mismanagement in the public sector, lack of transparency, and rent-seeking have eroded trust in government and weakened policy execution.
“Challenges such as poor enforcement of the rule of law, ineffective public financial management, and limited institutional capacity have discouraged investment, distorted the allocation of resources, and deepened inequality.

“As a result, even well-designed policies often suffer from poor or selective implementation.”

He also said that Nigeria has some lessons to learn from Vietnam, which has been consistent with market-oriented reforms, and Rwanda, which has demonstrated a strong governance framework and technology-led reforms, as well as Indonesia.

According to him, Indonesia shifted from overreliance on oil to promoting manufacturing and services, and by 2023, its manufacturing sector contributed about 19 per cent to GDP, compared to Nigeria’s 9.0 per cent.

“The lesson from Indonesia for Nigeria is that strategic investments in non-oil sectors, fiscal rule enforcement, and strengthening anti-corruption institutions can help manage volatility and foster inclusive growth.”