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•Declares Nigeria’s economy in better position to withstand US tariffs’ shock 

•Cardoso: Orthodox monetary policy has stabilised economy 

•Dangote joins World Bank’s investment lab to advance job creation in emerging markets

Obinna Chima, Eromosele Abiodun and Nume Ekeghe in Washington DC

Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, yesterday revealed that the forensic audit of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) was underway.

Also, as the ripple effects of United States’ reciprocal tariffs continue to reverberate across the globe, causing uncertainties, Edun asserted that the cocktail of reforms introduced since President Bola Tinubu assumed office has placed the economy in a stronger position than anticipated to absorb potential shocks.

This was as the Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, said the apex bank’s return to orthodox monetary policy was beginning to yield results, citing gains in macroeconomic stability, investor confidence, and improvements in Nigeria’s global credit ratings.

Equally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) advised Nigeria to consolidate its recent reforms by prioritising efficiency in public spending and committing to prudent fiscal policies.

Also yesterday, the World Bank Group announced the appointment of the President of the Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, into its Private Sector Investment Lab (PSIL), as the multilateral institution transitions into a new phase focused on implementing large-scale, job-generating investments in emerging markets.

Edun and Cordoso made the remarks during the Nigeria Investment Forum, which had in attendance foreign investors and some global investment bankers from JP Morgan, Citibank, Standard Chartered Bank, Chapel Hill Denham, Kirkoswald Capital, among others, held on the sidelines of the ongoing World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

Responding to a question on the oil sector, Edun said: “There is an NNPC audit underway so that we can really understand what has happened in the past. As for now, some reconciliation exercises are going on, because the truth is, as we all know, the removal of the fuel subsidy was announced on May 29, 2023, but it took time to achieve it, and in the meantime, part of that burden shifted from the government’s budget to NNPCL.

“So, there’s a reconciliation underway. And the most important thing is that the NNPC needs to come to the table with more oil production, more revenue, dollar revenue, and indeed, more revenue to the Federation. That’s the task and mandate have been given. And I think we I think they will deliver.”

Speaking further, the Finance Minister listed the raft of targeted reforms under the current administration to include fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange liberalisation, reset of monetary policy, elimination of Ways and Means, among others.

Edun explained: “First, regarding the global uncertainty and market shocks, Nigeria hasn’t suffered from the same reciprocal-type regime pressures as other economies because ours has been paused. As the Central Bank Governor noted, we’re in a better position today due to the reforms and progress we’ve undertaken.”

“In Nigeria, I believe we can attract private sector investment. The progress we’ve made so far is significant, and our near-term priorities are taking shape amid widespread macroeconomic uncertainty around the globe.

“Under the leadership of the President, we have successfully implemented reforms that are quite unprecedented. These are reforms we’ve spoken about for years; reforms we promised we would complete, and this time, we stayed the course. Now we can confidently say that we have implemented difficult but necessary reforms.”

According to him, the fuel subsidy was a major reform, which he stressed was about five percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

“This, combined with the reforms on the monetary side, such as putting in place efficient market systems and enabling price discovery, not just in foreign exchange, but also in petroleum products, has created the foundation for renewed industrialisation in Nigeria.

“We are targeting seven per cent annual growth, and this is a commitment President Tinubu is serious about. We believe that level of growth is essential to lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty.”

He added: “We are pushing for inclusive growth. With macroeconomic stability largely restored, we are expanding our focus on agriculture, infrastructure, especially digital and finance. This includes crowding in the private sector at a time of constrained fiscal space. By addressing agriculture, infrastructure, and financial access, we believe Nigeria is now firmly on the path towards a seven per cent annual GDP growth exactly where we need to be.”

Cardoso: Orthodox Monetary Policy Has Stabilised Nigerian Economy.

Meanwhile, Cardoso, asserted that the apex bank’s return to orthodox monetary policy was beginning to yield tangible results, citing gains in macroeconomic stability, investor confidence, and improvements in Nigeria’s global credit ratings.

He said: “The numbers speak for themselves. The difficult reforms we’ve undertaken are beginning to yield results. One of the most important decisions we made was to pursue orthodox monetary policy, an approach we were firmly committed to and have no intention of compromising on.

“As a result of this policy stance, we’ve been able to stabilise macroeconomic indicators. Today, we’re in a much better position than we were previously.”

Echoing the position of the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy on Nigeria’s buffers against global volatility, Cardoso noted that while the country was not immune to global financial shocks, its exposure has been comparatively moderate.

“Recently, when global markets experienced significant disruptions, we also felt the tremors. However, the relative impact on Nigeria was less severe. That speaks to the foundational work we’ve been doing behind the scenes,” he said.

 Cardoso stressed that rebuilding trust and confidence was central to the CBN’s agenda.

“There’s a common thread running through all our actions –  building confidence. We’re not claiming perfection, but we are making real progress. Confidence in the naira is strengthening and confidence in our policy direction is growing. And, perhaps most importantly, there is a renewed sense of hope in the country’s economic future.”

According to him, the bank’s disciplined policy implementation has not only brought a measure of stability to the economy, but also enhanced Nigeria’s image on the international stage.

“Our efforts have not gone unnoticed,” he added.

“Nigeria’s credit ratings have improved, which signals that our reforms are working. But we remain realistic, we’re still navigating a highly uncertain global environment. Anyone who followed the recent World Bank and IMF meetings would know that economic uncertainty is a global theme, and Nigeria is not exempt.”

Reflecting on the journey so far, Cardoso acknowledged the challenging environment over the past 18 months, noting that the response from the CBN has been deliberate and reform-driven.

“We have been operating in crisis mode for over a year and a half. Our approach has been to roll up our sleeves and do the necessary hard work— not just to improve the figures, but to enhance institutional capacity and resilience. We are now focused on strengthening the structures that will ensure long-term stability.”

Cardoso concluded on an optimistic note, saying investor sentiment was gradually shifting in Nigeria’s favour.

“From where I sit, I’m seeing growing interest in investing in Nigeria. If we remain committed to this path, the economic transformation we all seek is not just possible—it is inevitable,” he stressed.

Also speaking at the event Director General  Debt management Office, Patience Oniha, noted that Nigeria was in talks with JP Morgan for the West African country to be admitted back into the JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index.

“Regarding the JP Morgan Index, investors want us back in. With the reforms implemented, the foreign exchange market has improved, and we’re eligible again. We’ve resumed active engagement with JP Morgan to re-enter the index,” she explained.

Nicholas Bradford of Kirkoswald Capital, commended the apex bank on its data release, saying, “I think investors find the Central Bank of Nigeria’s gross reserves data incredibly timely. There are very few central banks in the world that give daily data with a two- day lag. It’s fantastic on the monetary side.”

Dangote Joins World Bank’s Investment Lab to Advance Job Creation Across Emerging Markets

In the meantime, Dangote has been appointed to the World Bank Group’s Private Sector Investment Lab (PSIL) as the Bank transitions into a new phase focused on implementing large-scale, job-generating investments in emerging markets.

The PSIL had identified five strategic pillars, regulatory and policy certainty, political risk guarantees, foreign exchange risk mitigation, early-stage equity capital, and securitisation — as levers to de-risk private capital and accelerate investment deployment.

As part of its expanded membership, the Lab now includes influential leaders such as Bill Anderson, CEO of Bayer AG; Sunil Bharti Mittal, Chair of Bharti Enterprises; and Mark Hoplamazian, President & CEO of Hyatt Hotels Corporation—alongside Dangote, whose business footprint spans infrastructure, manufacturing, and agribusiness across Africa.

With a deep understanding of the structural challenges that constrain private sector growth on the continent, Dangote and other members appointed are expected to contribute practical insights and regional expertise that support the Lab’s mission to translate investment into broad-based employment and sustainable development.

Commenting on the new phase of the Lab’s work, World Bank Group President Ajay Banga said, “We are grateful to the original Lab leaders who helped us deliver strong results in the initial phase. Now we are building on that foundation, bringing in leaders from sectors critical to job creation and moving from ideas to implementation.”

IMF Advises Nigeria to Consolidate Its Reforms by Prioritising Efficiency in Public Spending

The IMF advised Nigeria to consolidate its recent hard-won reforms by prioritising efficiency in public spending and committing to prudent fiscal policies.

The Fund stressed the importance of building fiscal buffers to shield the country against future shocks, even as it projected a gradual decline in Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio over the next five years. The IMF stated this during it’s Fiscal Monitor Press Conference at the ongoing 2025 Spring Meetings in Washington DC.

Also, according to the newly released Fiscal Monitor report, Nigeria’s public debt burden, while still elevated, was projected to follow a downward trajectory.

 After rising to 52.9 percent of GDP in 2024, the IMF forecasts that it will fall slightly to 52.5 percent in 2025, and then decline steadily to 45.4 percent by 2030. The Fund attributed this improvement to anticipated stronger economic growth and enhanced revenue mobilisation efforts.

However, the fiscal deficit, which narrowed from -4.2 percent in 2023 to -3.4 percent in 2024, was projected to widen again to -4.5 percent in both 2025 and 2026, -3.9 in 2027, -4.3 in 2028, before settling at -3.6 in 2029 and 2030.

Underscoring the need for better resource allocation, Division Chief in the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, Davide Furceri, acknowledged the difficult steps Nigeria had taken in recent times, particularly the painful reforms designed to create fiscal space.

However, he insisted that future expenditures must be guided by stronger prioritisation and improved efficiency.

He said, “Nigeria managed to do a very difficult reform that was important in delivering fiscal savings. That said, we understand that many countries, including Nigeria, face pressing spending needs. But spending must be done wisely. This means stronger prioritisation and greater efficiency in how resources are allocated.”

Furceri pointed out that the quality of fiscal institutions would play a defining role in shaping Nigeria’s fiscal trajectory. “One key message not just for Nigeria but for many countries is the importance of strong fiscal institutions. Medium-term fiscal frameworks and solid public financial management systems are essential. They provide a fiscal anchor to guide necessary adjustments and help reduce uncertainty. We want fiscal policy to be a source of stability, not a source of volatility.”

He also reiterated the importance of boosting government revenues, especially through non-oil sectors. “It’s important to create additional fiscal space. In Nigeria’s case, that means focusing on two things: first, boosting revenue through improved mobilization efforts, and second, scaling up spending in key areas like social protection and investment,” Furceri added.

On his part, the Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF, Vitor Gaspar, cautioned that while the reforms were commendable, governments, including Nigeria must now focus on putting their fiscal house in order.

He said: “In an uncertain and rapidly changing world, countries will need to first and foremost put their own fiscal house in order. This means implementing prudent policies within robust fiscal frameworks to build public confidence and help reduce uncertainty.

“Fiscal policy should prioritise reducing public debt and establishing and widening buffers to address spending pressures and economic shocks. This means finding the right balance between adjustment and supporting economic growth, tailored to each country’s unique situation, available resources, and overall economic conditions.”

Gaspar emphasised that fiscal policy should aim to reduce public debt while expanding fiscal buffers, noting that these steps are critical to managing mounting spending pressures and future economic disruptions.